The 2025 Grammy nominations were released last week, and among them, the eight candidates for Record of the Year were revealed. The winning song, announced at the Grammys ceremony in February, will stand with 66 others as the best, most iconic, and most liked song of their year. But what song will be selected? Many have theorized, and I wanted to throw my hat in.
Before I begin, I’d like to clarify a few things. First of all, Record of the Year commends the artist(s), producer(s), and engineer(s) involved in the creation of a song, while Song of the Year goes just to the songwriters. Secondly, I’d like to emphasize that I am reviewing what song I think will be chosen for Record of the Year. This is not my favorite song on this list (though I have one). This is the one I think will win Record of the Year, following trends set by the Recording Academy in recent years and each song’s content and story.
With that settled, I’ll start with the songs I think are least likely to win.
“Now and Then” – The Beatles
The eternal allure of The Beatles, especially the novelty of their nomination in 2024, nearly fifty years after their breakup, stands behind an excellent song. However, this list is full of excellent songs, and I don’t believe the novelty is enough to win over the other options with more cultural relevance. Though the Grammys enjoy some nostalgia, considering the balance of nostalgia with modern themes in songs later on in this list, it’s unlikely that that’ll get it enough votes to win.
“Fortnight” – Taylor Swift Feat. Post Malone
Despite her record-beating album of the year wins, Swift has never won record of the year, and I don’t think that is going to change this time around. Fortnight is by no means a bad song, but next to the other bright songs here, it fades to a true Tortured-Poets beige. Interestingly, Jack Antonoff, producer on this track, also wasn’t nominated as Producer of the Year, Non-Classical. I’m not an enormous fan of his production, and it may appear that the Recording Academy may agree by now.
If these next few songs won, it would certainly be an upset, but not entirely unexpected.
“360” – Charli xcx
This anthemic lead of “brat” (yes, like the summer) is an excellent song. It’s an interesting candidate, as there hasn’t been an electropop song of the year since 2019, and certainly never a hyperpop winner. It absolutely could be selected on its generic diversity and cultural impact. However, I don’t think it charted high enough for it to get sufficient attention — it peaked at 41 on the Billboard Hot 100; the next lowest on this list is “Now and Then” at 7. As good of a song as it is, I don’t think it has the power to beat some of the other, just as fun songs on this list.
“Not Like Us” – Kendrick Lamar
It would be incredibly cool for this song to win. However, hip-hop has only won Record of the Year once with Childish Gambino’s “This is America”, and that song had a rich cultural meaning, which isn’t as exemplified with “Not Like Us”. Perhaps that’s unfair to say when I’m praising other songs for just being “fun”, but I think hip hop hasn’t fully broken into the mainstream yet. As I said at the beginning, I would love it if it were selected, as it may begin to break that barrier. I don’t think it will when it’s compared to the other songs here.
“Good Luck, Babe!” – Chappell Roan
This song is my personal favorite on the list. Do I think it will win? Probably not. This is mostly in comparison to the top three on this list. While it’s got nostalgic production, modern lyricism, and one incredible voice, coupled with showstopping performances by Roan, other songs are liked more broadly. She’s also faced several controversies spun up by the media (the scale of which could be debated), which the voting body might take into consideration. As with “Not Like Us,” she could win, but she’d have to beat some powerhouses. I do still hope she still performs at the Grammys, especially after her armor-clad concert at the VMAs.
That brings me to the top contenders, all of which enjoyed top-three success on the Billboard Hot 100 and are generally accepted as the favorites.
“Espresso” – Sabrina Carpenter
With its tongue-in-cheek, grammatically confounding chorus, Espresso was the sound of everyone’s summer. It’s incredibly on-trend with the previous two Records of the Year, “Flowers” and “About Damn Time”, with an incredible female singer, fun production, and confident lyrics. However, it may be too saccharine for some voters, and the clear relationship between them and other 2020s Records of the Year may leave others yearning something new. That being said, Carpenter has a strong chance.
“BIRDS OF A FEATHER” – Billie Eilish
Eilish is a perennial Grammys favorite (as well as a record-breaker), and this song is no exception. However, this is a song about, to put it simply, love, which she hasn’t won for yet; her two Records of the Year are for “Bad Guy” and “Everything I Wanted.” It’s also an excellent song, from the simple but deep lyrics to the rich production. Unfortunately, I don’t think there’s much more to say than it’s an excellent song. Billie Eilish is an excellent artist, and the Recording Academy has come to understand that, but especially as compared to my top pick, there isn’t as much of a compelling narrative around the song as there is with many of the others on this list. It is still my second highest pick (and my second favorite on this list), but I’m not quite sure it can topple the allure of my number one pick.
With seven songs down, it’s time for me to reveal the song I think will win Record of the Year. It’s got all the necessary elements: it achieved significant commercial success, it fits a compelling narrative, and, most crucially, it’s a darn good song.
“TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” – Beyoncé
This year has had many pop artists turn country, and Beyoncé is the first and most iconic name on that list. As her co-lead single of COWBOY CARTER, “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” coupled an excellent song with an evaluation of the Black roots of country and diversity in the genre. I’ll admit, I’m biased towards any song that has a banjo, but the production is excellent, hitting all the notes of modern country-pop with a twist of signature Beyoncé. Her own star power does help, but she doesn’t rely on it to make a good song. I do think the narrative of this song also proves compelling, especially regarding the questions it’s raised about the place of Black artists in country music. Her win for record of the year would prove her place in the genre (as would a win in the country categories, but that’s a separate issue), which is a compelling story many voters might like. With all these elements in mind, I think “TEXAS HOLD ‘EM” is the top contender for record of the year.
The Record of the Year will be revealed at the Grammys on February 2, 2025. Until then, critics will continue to theorize, myself included.
Sources:
www.grammy.com/news/whats-difference-grammy-record-year-vs-song-year
www.grammy.com/news/2025-grammys-nominations-full-winners-nominees-list
www.goldderby.com/article/2024/grammys-record-of-the-year-trends
